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Australian Inflation Eases: Rebates and Rents Drive July Decline

Australian Inflation Eases

Australian inflation pressures eased in July, with government rebates helping to counteract rising electricity costs and rents. The monthly consumer price index (CPI) rose by 3.5% in the 12 months to July 2024, down from 3.8% in June, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. This decrease marks a welcome shift but is primarily driven by temporary government payments.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is likely to view this data favorably, though it may not yet signal a change in its cautious approach. RBA Governor Michele Bullock recently emphasized that interest-rate cuts remain off the table due to lingering concerns over inflationary pressures, particularly in core inflation, which continues to exceed the central bank’s target.

Economists suggest that the headlines of falling inflation could help lower inflation expectations, which play a crucial role in wage agreements. Moreover, annual payments linked to the CPI may see adjustments, reflecting the recent trends in inflation.

A significant factor in the easing of inflation was the decline in electricity prices, which fell by 5.1% in the year to July, down from a 7.5% increase in June. This reduction was largely due to federal government rebates introduced in May, aimed at alleviating the cost of living pressures.

Despite the overall moderation in inflation, housing costs, particularly rents, continue to rise, highlighting ongoing challenges in the rental market across Australia’s capital cities. As the government and RBA monitor these developments, the trajectory of inflation and economic policy will remain a critical focus in the months ahead.

 

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