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The dollar-yen pair surged back above ¥150 for the first time since August, as forex markets reacted to expectations that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will hold interest rates steady. The dollar has gained more than 5% against the yen over the past month, with Friday’s move breaking a key psychological level, signaling a shift back towards yen weakness.
In September, the yen had briefly rallied during a period of thin summer trading, but that momentum quickly reversed. Traders have now turned bearish on the yen, driven by Japan’s continued ultra-loose monetary policy. The BOJ has resisted raising interest rates, opting instead to keep them low, which has weakened the yen as other global central banks, like the U.S. Federal Reserve, remain more hawkish.
The Bank of Japan’s next meeting on October 31 is widely expected to be a non-event in terms of rate changes. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s recent comments urging the BOJ to keep rates flat have reinforced expectations that the central bank will not take any aggressive steps to support the yen by tightening monetary policy.
This policy stance contrasts sharply with global trends, particularly in the U.S., where higher rates have strengthened the dollar. Traders are increasingly pricing in a scenario where the BOJ maintains its dovish stance, leaving the yen vulnerable and driving further declines against the dollar.
As the BOJ continues to prioritize economic stimulus over currency strength, the yen’s outlook remains uncertain and volatile, with forex traders keeping a close watch on how Japan’s monetary policy evolves in the coming months.
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