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Eurozone inflation ticked up in January, reaching 2.5% year-over-year from December’s 2.4%, according to Eurostat data released Monday. The modest increase comes as European policymakers grapple with uncertainty fueled by U.S. President Trump’s latest tariff announcements on Canada, Mexico, and China. Investors are now questioning whether the eurozone could be next in line for trade restrictions.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has been expecting inflation to ease through 2025, allowing for a gradual reduction in interest rates to support the struggling eurozone economy. The ECB already cut its key rate to 2.75% last Thursday and signaled further reductions as inflation moves closer to its target. However, concerns over new tariffs disrupting global trade could complicate those expectations.
Trump’s comments over the weekend raised alarms in Europe, as he hinted at potential tariffs targeting the EU. “They don’t take our cars, they don’t take our farm products, and we take everything from them,” Trump stated. The ECB has acknowledged that such tariffs would inject uncertainty into inflation forecasts while posing clear downside risks to economic growth.
ECB President Christine Lagarde warned that the overall impact of tariffs remains unclear, as it could have both inflationary and deflationary effects, depending on their scope and potential retaliation. Nonetheless, the central bank still expects inflation to gradually decline throughout 2025, with energy price effects fading. However, services inflation remains a persistent concern, standing at 3.9% in January.
European stocks declined on Monday as financial markets reacted to the growing fears of a broader trade war. Investors are closely watching for further developments, with the ECB facing increasing pressure to navigate inflation and economic stagnation amid global trade disruptions.
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