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The Federal Reserve’s favored inflation gauge, the personal-consumption-expenditures (PCE) price index, dropped to 2.1% in September, indicating inflation is nearing the central bank’s 2% goal. Monthly price increases moderated, with a rise of just under 0.2% from August, marking a significant cooldown compared to the rapid increases observed last year.
However, core inflation—which excludes volatile food and energy costs—remained at 2.7% year-over-year, showing little change since May. Service prices, up 3.7% over the past year, were particularly resistant to decline, underscoring the persistent pressures in some parts of the economy. “Now you can say, ‘OK, the eagle has landed,’” noted David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, highlighting the successful inflation moderation effort.
Despite higher prices, consumer spending has kept economic activity robust. The Commerce Department reported a 2.8% annualized GDP growth rate for the third quarter, largely driven by consumer spending, as demand persisted despite previous inflation shocks. This robust spending underscores a still-healthy appetite among U.S. consumers.
Given this easing in inflation and continued economic strength, the Fed is expected to adjust rates with a smaller quarter-point cut in its upcoming meeting, a shift from prior half-point cuts. Resilience in the labor market and overall economy has led Fed officials to advocate for a more measured rate reduction approach.
As inflation continues to moderate, the upcoming labor market report will be pivotal for the Fed’s decision and comes just days ahead of a highly anticipated presidential election. Economists expect steady unemployment at 4.1%, a level the Fed will closely examine as it weighs future policy directions.
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