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The GBPUSD pair erased over 1% in gains on Friday after a sharp rally in the US dollar, triggered by the latest US jobs report. The UK currency initially rose to a session high of $1.3230, nearing its 2024 peak, before falling. This reversal followed the release of US jobs data that showed the economy added 142,000 new jobs in August, below the consensus estimate of 164,000, leading to a drop in the pound-dollar exchange rate.
Prior to the report, markets had anticipated a 25 basis point (bps) interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve, boosting the outlook for the pound. However, the weaker-than-expected jobs figure caused traders to reassess, leading to a resurgence in the dollar. The potential for the Federal Reserve to take a more cautious approach has dampened enthusiasm for the British pound, wiping out gains made earlier in the week.
The surprising shift in the dollar’s momentum highlights how sensitive currency markets are to US economic data. Traders had been betting on a moderate rate cut, but the jobs report has raised questions about whether a 25bps trim will be enough to support the economy. This uncertainty gave the US dollar an unexpected boost as investors turned to safer assets.
Despite the rally, there is still a chance for further volatility. Analysts suggest that if the Federal Reserve opts for a more aggressive 50bps cut instead of the expected 25bps, the US dollar could weaken sharply. This would likely provide a boost for GBP/USD, as lower interest rates typically encourage investors to seek higher-risk assets, diminishing demand for safe-haven currencies like the dollar.
As the market gears up for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on September 18, the GBP/USD pair could see significant movement. Traders are closely monitoring both economic data and Fed signals for clues on the future of monetary policy and its impact on currency markets.
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