Gold's record-breaking rally who's keeping it going (1)
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Gold’s record-breaking rally: who’s keeping it going?

Gold Prices Surge to Record $3,728 Per Troy Ounce Amid Robust Demand Drivers

LONDON, September 22 – Gold prices soared to an unprecedented high of $3,728 per troy ounce on Monday, extending a remarkable rally that has doubled the precious metal’s value since late 2022. This historic surge reflects a confluence of factors driving demand, including heightened central bank purchases, strong investment inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and geopolitical uncertainty stemming from shifts in U.S. policy under former President Donald Trump.

Key Takeaways:

  • Gold prices reach an all-time high of $3,728 per troy ounce, doubling its value since late 2022.
  • Central banks boost purchases, exceeding 1,000 metric tons annually since 2022, diversifying away from the U.S. dollar.
  • Gold ETFs see strong inflows, with holdings climbing to their highest level since 2022.
  • Jewellery demand declines under high prices, while retail investors favor gold bars over coins.
  • Geopolitical instability and economic concerns continue to fuel gold’s safe-haven appeal.

The rally has cemented gold’s status as a safe-haven asset in times of economic turbulence, with analysts projecting sustained demand in the near term.


Central Banks’ Gold Buying Remains Resilient

Central banks have emerged as major players in the gold market, significantly contributing to the metal’s upward trajectory. Annual net purchases by central banks have exceeded 1,000 metric tons each year since 2022, according to consultancy Metals Focus, which anticipates that central banks will buy approximately 900 tons in 2025. This figure is more than double the annual average of 457 tons recorded between 2016 and 2021.

The shift toward gold by developing economies is largely driven by efforts to diversify away from the U.S. dollar following Western sanctions on Russia in 2022, which froze nearly half of the country’s official foreign currency reserves. As a result, gold has become a preferred asset for countries seeking greater financial independence and security.

Official figures reported to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) only account for 34% of the estimated total central bank gold demand for 2024, according to the World Gold Council (WGC). Central bank purchases accounted for 23% of total annual gold demand between 2022 and 2025, doubling their average share from the 2010s.


Jewellery Sector Faces Decline Amid High Prices

While institutional and investment demand for gold has flourished, the jewellery sector has struggled under the weight of record-high prices. Gold jewellery demand fell 14% in the second quarter of 2025 to just 341 tons, marking its lowest level since the pandemic-stricken third quarter of 2020, according to the WGC.

China and India, historically the largest markets for gold jewellery, saw their combined market share drop below 50% for only the third time in five years. This decline underscores the price sensitivity of jewellery buyers in these regions. Metals Focus estimates that global gold jewellery fabrication fell 9% to 2,011 tons in 2024 and is expected to slump by an additional 16% this year.


Retail Investment: Bars Rise as Coins Decline

Retail investors have shown resilience despite fluctuating preferences within this sector. Investment demand for gold bars rose by 10% in 2024, while coin purchases dropped sharply by 31%, according to the WGC. This trend has continued into 2025, reflecting shifting consumer behavior amid evolving market dynamics.

Metals Focus projects that net physical investment will rise by 2% this year to reach 1,218 tons, buoyed by strong demand across Asia and optimistic price expectations. Retail investors appear increasingly drawn to gold bars as a more stable form of investment compared to coins.

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Gold ETFs See Renewed Inflows

Gold-backed ETFs have emerged as a critical source of demand in recent years, with inflows reaching a robust 397 tons during the first half of 2025—the largest first-half inflow since 2020, according to the WGC. Total holdings in gold ETFs stood at 3,615.9 tons at the end of June, marking their highest level since August 2022.

While ETF holdings remain below their record peak of 3,915 tons set five years ago, Metals Focus expects net investment in exchange-traded products (ETPs) to reach approximately 500 tons this year. This is a significant rebound compared to seven tons of outflows recorded in 2024.


Geopolitical Uncertainty Fuels Safe-Haven Demand

Gold’s recent rally is deeply intertwined with geopolitical instability and economic concerns stemming from Western policy shifts under former U.S. President Donald Trump. His administration’s trade wars and challenges to Western security alliances have heightened global uncertainty, driving investors toward safe-haven assets like gold.

Additionally, concerns about the independence of the U.S. Federal Reserve have further bolstered demand for gold as an alternative store of value. Investors continue to view gold as a reliable hedge against inflation and currency fluctuations during periods of economic and political turmoil.


Historical Context and Market Outlook

The current rally bears similarities to previous periods of heightened gold demand during global crises, such as the financial instability following the 2008 economic downturn and the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020. However, this surge is unique in its breadth, with central banks, institutional investors, and retail buyers all contributing significantly to demand.

While high prices have deterred jewellery purchases, robust central bank activity and strong inflows into ETFs suggest that gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset remains intact. Metals Focus anticipates continued resilience in physical investment demand through year-end, supported by positive price expectations across Asia.

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Conclusion

Gold’s record-breaking ascent to $3,728 per troy ounce underscores its enduring status as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical uncertainty and economic challenges. With central banks maintaining robust purchasing activity and ETFs attracting renewed inflows, gold’s upward trajectory appears well-supported by diverse market drivers.

While jewellery demand continues to face pressure from high prices, retail investment and institutional interest remain strong pillars of support for the precious metal. As global markets navigate uncertainty, gold’s role as a reliable store of value remains firmly entrenched.

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This article was written exclusively for Fortune Prime Global (FPG) and adheres to ASIC regulations.

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