Markets Review: July 21–25, 2025
The week of July 21–25, 2025, brought a dynamic mix of market movements and geopolitical developments that shaped the financial landscape. From central bank decisions to US-China-EU tariff brinkmanship, traders and investors navigated a complex web of volatility across major currencies, commodities, and cryptocurrencies. This review breaks down the week’s highlights, offering actionable insights for Forex traders and investors alike.
US Labor Market: Jobless Claims Hit Three-Month Low
The U.S. labor market demonstrated resilience during the week, with initial jobless claims falling by 4,000 to reach 217,000—the lowest level since mid-April 2025. This marked the sixth consecutive weekly drop, defying economists’ predictions of an increase.
The data suggests layoffs remain historically low despite signs of slowing hiring activity. Economists view this trend as consistent with a “soft landing” scenario for the U.S. economy, where growth slows without significant labor market stress despite elevated borrowing costs.
Intel Announces Major Job Cuts Amid Strategic Overhaul
Intel made headlines this week with its announcement to reduce its global workforce by approximately 15%, cutting down to 75,000 employees by year-end 2025 from 99,500 at the end of 2024. This move is part of CEO Lip-Bu Tan’s strategic overhaul aimed at restoring financial discipline and reversing years of underperformance.
The company plans to consolidate chip packaging operations and pause major factory projects in Ohio, Poland, and Germany as it shifts its manufacturing model to focus on customer demand rather than speculative production capacity. Despite forecasting deeper Q3 losses than anticipated, Intel’s latest sales figures slightly exceeded expectations, providing some relief to investors.
China and Asia: Markets Rise on Trade Optimism
Asian markets rallied during the week, led by gains in China’s Shanghai Composite (+0.65%) and Shenzhen Component indices. Optimism surrounding renewed US-China trade talks and tariff truces contributed to this positive sentiment.
Recent tariff agreements between the U.S. and several Asian economies—such as Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines—further buoyed investor confidence. The weakening U.S. dollar and climbing commodity prices also supported tech and export-oriented stocks in Australia and Japan.
Investors are now eagerly awaiting Chinese industrial profits data for insights into economic resilience amid lingering trade uncertainties.
Major Currencies Overview: Exchange Rate Trends
Currency markets remained relatively stable throughout the week, with modest moves influenced by central bank outlooks and inflation data. Here’s a snapshot of the major currency pairs as of July 25, 2025:
| Pair | Rate | Weekly Change / Notable Move |
|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.175 | Relatively stable; 1.175% weekly gain, 0.307% jump on July 24 |
| GBP/USD | 1.351 | Modest moves, influenced by central bank outlooks |
| USD/CHF | 0.795 | CHF stable amid global uncertainty |
| USD/CAD | 1.364 | CAD steady, supported by oil price trends |
| AUD/USD | 1.517 | AUD up slightly; driven by trade themes and commodity support |
| USD/JPY | 147.205 | JPY under modest pressure due to global risk trends |
| NZD/USD | 0.605 | NZD edged higher over the week |
Key Takeaways:
- The USD softened further, reflecting an 11% year-to-date (YTD) index drop and a notable 13% loss versus the euro earlier in July.
- Currency movements were largely contained within moderate ranges, with brief spikes around headline events like inflation data and central bank signals.
- The EUR/USD pair’s stability was noteworthy, especially with the euro gaining traction on expectations of potential European Central Bank (ECB) rate cuts.
Major Commodities: Price Trends and Volatility
Commodities saw significant activity during the week, driven by geopolitical developments and central bank signaling. Precious metals and crude oil were particularly in focus.
Gold & Silver: Safe-Haven Appeal
Both gold and silver benefitted from rising global uncertainty and dovish central bank signaling. Political volatility in the US further amplified safe-haven flows into precious metals.
- Gold: Prices climbed amid increased volatility driven by tariff risks and Federal Reserve policy uncertainty.
- Silver: Tracked gold’s upward trajectory, supported by safe-haven demand.
Crude Oil: Rebounding on Supply Risks
Oil Prices Surge on Trade Optimism and Russian Gasoline Cuts
Oil prices saw a notable uptick during the week, rising by 1% as a combination of geopolitical and economic factors fueled optimism. Reports of Russia restricting gasoline exports to most countries created supply concerns in the energy market, overshadowing other corporate news in the sector. This move was complemented by growing optimism surrounding a potential US-EU trade deal, which further boosted investor sentiment.
Additionally, a significant drawdown in U.S. crude inventories and ongoing US-China trade talks added to the bullish outlook for oil demand globally. Brent and WTI crude prices benefited from this confluence of factors, signaling stronger price momentum in the weeks ahead.
| Commodity | Move/Status |
|---|---|
| Gold | Up; volatility increased on Fed, tariff risks |
| Silver | Up; tracked gold, benefitted from safe-haven flows |
| Oil | Rebounded; supported by supply risks and tariff developments |
Leading Cryptocurrencies: Altcoin Surge Takes Center Stage
The cryptocurrency market experienced robust activity during the week, with Ethereum and XRP leading the charge while Bitcoin saw muted gains.
Ethereum (ETH): Institutional Momentum
Ethereum surged to a five-month high, gaining an impressive +25% for the week. The rally was fueled by inflows from institutional investors, excitement over ETF developments, and growing regulatory clarity.
XRP: Breaking Records
XRP achieved a seven-year high amid favorable regulatory developments and optimism surrounding a pending ETF approval.
Bitcoin (BTC): Steady Performance
Bitcoin traded steadily with relatively muted gains (+0.5%), losing market dominance to altcoins as Ethereum absorbed significant inflows.
Altcoins: “Alt Season” in Full Swing
Several altcoins such as DIA and UMA posted double-digit percentage gains, while popular tokens like Dogecoin and Cardano rallied over 5%. The total crypto market cap exceeded $4 trillion following the passage of key US legislation—the GENIUS Act and the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act—which boosted investor confidence.
Geopolitical & Economic Events: Key Drivers of Market Sentiment
US-China-EU Tariff Brinkmanship
The US reaffirmed its “hard deadline” for new tariffs on August 1, escalating trade tensions across global markets. While enforcement details remained unclear, the uncertainty caused brief volatility in risk assets.
US Political Turmoil
Rumors that President Trump might fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell led to a spike in volatility across equities and Treasuries. Although these rumors were swiftly denied, concerns over central bank independence lingered.
Central Banks & Inflation
- The Federal Reserve held off on rate cuts for July but signaled possible easing in September due to sticky inflation in tariff-sensitive categories.
- ECB debates over rate cuts fueled volatility in EUR/USD and EUR/GBP pairs as traders anticipated potential monetary easing.
Why the Russian Rouble Is Outperforming
The Russian rouble has emerged as the world’s top-performing currency year-to-date in 2025, appreciating by an impressive 45% against the U.S. dollar. This remarkable surge can be attributed to several factors:
- Tight Capital Controls: The Kremlin has mandated companies to sell a significant portion of foreign exchange earnings, boosting rouble demand.
- High Interest Rates: Russia’s central bank has maintained interest rates above 20%, making rouble-denominated assets highly attractive to investors.
- Reduced Imports: Western sanctions have limited imports, reducing domestic demand for hard currency.
- Geopolitical Speculation: Hopes of a Ukraine ceasefire and shifts in U.S. trade policy under Trump have further buoyed the rouble’s performance.
However, this surge presents challenges for Russia’s economy, particularly in terms of budget planning. A stronger rouble diminishes the domestic currency value of oil export revenues, which could strain fiscal stability over time.
Volatility Overview: How Markets Reacted
Despite headline shocks throughout the week, overall market volatility remained relatively contained.
Equities
Equity markets demonstrated resilience, with major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq notching record highs late in the week. Volatility indices like the VIX stayed below 20, signaling calm conditions despite political and economic uncertainty.
FX & Commodities
Currency and commodity markets experienced short-lived surges in volatility around key events such as US tariff announcements and central bank decisions. However, these reactions quickly retraced as traders digested the news.
Cryptocurrencies
Crypto markets recorded substantial spikes in both volatility and trading volume, particularly in Ethereum (ETH), XRP, and selected altcoins. Regulatory clarity provided a significant tailwind for investor sentiment.
Conclusion: Navigating Market Dynamics with FPG
The week of July 21–25, 2025, underscored the importance of staying informed amid rapidly changing market conditions. From currency stability to commodity rebounds and crypto surges, traders had opportunities to capitalize on diverse market drivers.
At Fortune Prime Global (FPG), we empower Forex traders and investors with actionable insights and cutting-edge tools to navigate these complexities effectively. Whether you’re tracking currency pairs or exploring crypto opportunities, FPG provides the resources you need to make informed decisions.
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