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New Zealand’s inflation rate has fallen back into the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) target band for the first time since early 2021. In the third quarter, inflation reached an annual rate of 2.2%, comfortably within the 1%-3% range, opening the door for more aggressive interest-rate cuts in the coming months. Some economists argue that the RBNZ needs to continue lowering rates swiftly, as the neutral policy rate is still distant.
The drop in inflation from 3.3% in the second quarter highlights the impact of the 75 basis points in rate cuts announced since August, including a 50 basis point reduction last week. Economists are concerned, however, that inflation could undershoot the target in future quarters if the RBNZ eases the pace of cuts too soon. In quarterly terms, inflation rose by 0.6%, pointing to a slowing trend.
The RBNZ has reduced its official cash rate to 4.75%, down from 5.50%, with a neutral rate likely closer to 3.00%, according to experts. New Zealand’s farm-driven economy has faced repeated recessions as the RBNZ took a particularly aggressive approach to battling inflation that surged after the COVID-19 pandemic.
Inflationary pressures in New Zealand continue to come from rising rents, which were up 4.5% annually. Additionally, local authority rates and excise taxes on tobacco surged, contributing significantly to inflation. These costs were partially offset by declines in gasoline and vegetable prices, which helped ease some of the price pressures faced by consumers.
Looking forward, New Zealand’s economic outlook remains uncertain, particularly with China, its largest trading partner, facing a slowdown. Economists suggest the RBNZ may need to continue its aggressive monetary policy to stabilize the economy, especially given the ongoing global economic challenges.
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