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Oil prices hovered near a two-week low on Tuesday after a 5% decline over the past two sessions, as investors processed OPEC’s recent downgrade in demand forecasts, a stronger U.S. dollar, and a lukewarm response to China’s latest economic stimulus measures. Brent crude edged up by 6 cents to $71.89 a barrel, while U.S. WTI gained 8 cents, closing at $68.12. Both benchmarks had reached their lowest levels since October 29 on Monday.
OPEC revised its 2024 global oil demand forecast downward once again, marking the fourth consecutive revision. The group’s challenging market outlook has also led OPEC+ (OPEC and allies like Russia) to delay a planned production increase originally scheduled for December.
China recently announced a 10-trillion-yuan ($1.4 trillion) debt relief initiative aimed at easing financial pressures on local governments. Following his November 5 election win, former U.S. President Donald Trump has raised the possibility of new tariffs on Chinese imports, which could further strain demand. Analysts noted that China’s relief package might not be enough to significantly spur economic growth. Trump’s expected foreign policy choices, including Senator Marco Rubio as a possible Secretary of State, add to the uncertainty as Rubio has long supported a tough stance on China, Iran, and Cuba.
The dollar’s recent gains make oil more expensive for foreign buyers, potentially dampening demand. In Europe, investor confidence declined as both Trump’s election victory and political upheaval in Germany raised concerns over Germany’s already struggling economy. European Central Bank officials cautioned that protectionist U.S. policies could curb global growth, stressing the need for stronger preparation than in 2018.
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