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The euro recently hit a one-year low at around $1.06, dropping nearly 5% since September, raising the prospect it could approach parity with the U.S. dollar. This decline coincides with Donald Trump’s 2024 election win, which has spurred concerns of new tariffs potentially impacting the eurozone economy. Major banks, including JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank, suggest that tariffs and U.S. tax policies could increase inflationary pressures in the U.S., strengthening the dollar and making parity for the euro a real possibility.
For businesses and consumers, a weaker euro has mixed effects. A declining euro increases import costs, potentially raising prices for essentials like food and energy. However, it also makes European exports more affordable, benefitting industries like German manufacturing and luxury goods. Inflation, though high in recent years, is expected to stabilize around 2% by next year, so price impacts from a weaker euro may remain manageable in the short term.
The ECB is less concerned about euro weakness than in previous instances, given the current inflation trend. Although a drop to $1 could draw attention, the ECB focuses on the euro’s performance against a broader range of trade-weighted currencies, where recent declines are less pronounced. Economists believe that the moderate effect of currency shifts on inflation should allow the ECB to continue planned rate cuts without immediate concerns over euro volatility.
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