FPG EURUSD Market Report August 4, 2026

On the H4 timeframe, EURUSD remains in a strong bullish phase following a sustained bearish trend. As illustrated on the chart, the pair previously declined from approximately 1.1482 to 1.1352, forming a well-defined descending channel before reversing direction. Buying momentum then strengthened considerably, driving the pair from around 1.1365 to a recent high of 1.1559, confirming a decisive bullish breakout and a shift in market sentiment. EURUSD is currently trading near 1.1512, holding comfortably above the breakout area despite a modest pullback, while overall market volatility remains relatively elevated.

From a technical perspective, the Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the rally, reflecting the strength of the bullish move, although they have recently begun to narrow, suggesting that volatility is gradually stabilizing after the sharp advance. The Parabolic SAR continues to plot below the candlesticks, reinforcing that the prevailing trend remains bullish. Meanwhile, the Stochastic (5,3,3) has retreated from overbought territory, indicating that upside momentum has moderated in the near term, while the Money Flow Index (MFI) has also eased but remains above oversold levels, suggesting that buying interest is cooling rather than reversing. Overall, these indicators point to the possibility of a brief consolidation or limited corrective pullback before the broader uptrend resumes.

Fundamental sentiment continues to favor the euro after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, while expectations of moderating U.S. inflation have reduced support for the U.S. dollar. At the same time, improving Eurozone manufacturing data and stable expectations surrounding the European Central Bank’s monetary policy have reinforced confidence in the single currency. Market participants are now closely monitoring upcoming U.S. economic releases, including JOLTS Job Openings, Factory Orders, and Trade Balance data, for additional insight into the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Should these releases reinforce expectations of a less restrictive monetary stance, they could provide further support for EURUSD and help sustain its broader bullish trend.

Technical Market Overview
1. Current Position: EURUSD remains in a bullish trend on the H4 timeframe after breaking out of a previous descending channel. The pair is currently trading around 1.1512, holding above the breakout zone despite a modest pullback, indicating that buyers continue to maintain overall market control.
2. Resistance Zone: The nearest resistance is located at 1.1559, the recent swing high. A decisive break above this level could reinforce bullish momentum and open the way for a continuation of the uptrend toward higher price levels.
3. Support Zone: Immediate support is seen around 1.1482, which previously acted as resistance before the breakout and may now serve as support. A stronger support zone is located near 1.1365, where the latest bullish rally originated.
4. Indicator Observation: The Bollinger Bands remain relatively wide but have started to contract, suggesting that volatility is stabilizing following the recent rally. Parabolic SAR continues to plot below the candlesticks, confirming that the prevailing trend remains bullish. Meanwhile, the Stochastic (5,3,3) has retreated from overbought territory, while the Money Flow Index (MFI) has eased, indicating that bullish momentum is moderating without signaling a confirmed trend reversal.
5. Technical Summary: The broader technical outlook remains bullish as EURUSD continues to trade above its recent breakout level with trend-following indicators maintaining a positive bias. Although momentum indicators suggest the possibility of short-term consolidation or a limited corrective pullback, the prevailing uptrend remains intact as long as price holds above the key support zone around 1.1482. A sustained move above 1.1559 would strengthen the bullish outlook and increase the likelihood of further upside continuation.

Market Performance:
Forex           Last Price      % Change
USD/JPY      157.40             +0.17%
GBP/USD     1.3431             −0.02%

Key Economic Calendar:
US: Balance of Trade
CA: Balance of Trade
US: Exports & Imports
CA: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
US: Factory Orders MoM
US: JOLTs Job Openings