FPG EURUSD Market Report October 28, 2025

The EUR/USD pair on the H4 timeframe is showing signs of a mild recovery within a short-term ascending channel, currently trading around 1.1655. The price recently rebounded from the 1.1575 support area and is now testing the upper boundary of the bullish channel, facing resistance near 1.1675. However, the broader trend remains uncertain as the pair struggles to sustain momentum above key resistance levels, with the Ichimoku cloud acting as an immediate barrier to further upside.

Technically, EUR/USD is trading near the Ichimoku cloud, suggesting consolidation between bullish attempts and lingering downside risks. The Tenkan-sen has crossed above the Kijun-sen, indicating short-term buying momentum, while Parabolic SAR dots positioned below the candles support a near-term upward bias. The Money Flow Index (MFI) is around 54, reflecting moderate buying interest, while the Bulls Power histogram remains slightly positive, confirming short-term strength but not yet sufficient to break the broader resistance structure.

From a fundamental standpoint, the euro is supported by improving risk sentiment across Europe, though gains remain limited as the U.S. dollar steadies amid firm Treasury yields and cautious remarks from Federal Reserve officials. The European Central Bank’s dovish stance continues to cap the euro’s upside potential, while traders await fresh U.S. economic data for further directional cues. Overall, the pair appears to be consolidating ahead of its next decisive move, with resistance levels continuing to keep the rally in check.

Market Observation & Strategy Advice
1. Current Position: EUR/USD trades near 1.1655, attempting to sustain within a mild ascending channel while facing resistance at the upper range.
2. Resistance Zone: Key resistance is located at 1.1675 – 1.1727, coinciding with the Ichimoku cloud top and previous reversal area.
3. Support Zone: Initial support stands at 1.1575, followed by 1.1540. A drop below these levels could renew bearish momentum toward 1.1500.
4. Indicators: Ichimoku cloud signals consolidation; Tenkan-sen above Kijun-sen shows minor bullish bias. Parabolic SAR supports upward structure, while MFI near 54 and Bulls Power remain mildly positive, suggesting cautious buying pressure.
5. Trading Strategy Suggestions:

• Buy-on-Dip Bias: Consider long positions near 1.1600–1.1620, targeting 1.1675 and 1.1720, with a stop loss below 1.1570.
• Cautious Approach: Wait for a confirmed breakout above 1.1675 before adding bullish exposure.
• Alternative View: A clear break below 1.1575 may reverse sentiment, shifting focus back to 1.1540 and 1.1500.

Market Performance:
Forex             Last Price      % Change
GBP/USD        1.3351               +0.13%
USD/JPY         152.45              −0.27%

Today’s Key Economic Calendar:
DE: GfK Consumer Confidence
US: S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY
US: CB Consumer Confidence