FPG USDCAD Market Report August 7, 2026

On the H1 timeframe, USDCAD is attempting to recover after previously experiencing a sharp bearish decline. As shown on the chart, the pair fell from approximately 1.4080 to 1.3990 before finding support and rebounding. Since establishing that low, price has begun forming a sequence of higher lows while stabilizing above the 1.3990 support area. USDCAD is currently trading around 1.4017, with volatility remaining relatively moderate as the market consolidates following the recent recovery. Although the broader trend remains bearish, recent price action suggests buyers are gradually regaining short-term control.

From a technical perspective, USDCAD is showing early signs of recovery following its recent sell-off. Bollinger Bands remain relatively stable, indicating that market volatility has yet to expand significantly despite the recent rebound. The latest Parabolic SAR dots have shifted below the candles, confirming the emergence of short-term bullish momentum following the previous bearish trend. Meanwhile, the Money Flow Index (MFI 14) has risen to approximately 63.37, reflecting improving capital inflows and strengthening buying pressure. The Stochastic oscillator has rebounded from the oversold region, with readings of approximately 62.58 and 38.81, indicating that bullish momentum is gradually building as buyers regain market participation.

Over the past two days, markets have focused on key US labor data, including Nonfarm Payrolls, the Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings, as well as comments from Federal Reserve officials. Meanwhile, stable commodity prices and constructive US-Canada trade discussions have continued to provide underlying support for the Canadian dollar. Against this backdrop, USDCAD remains in a technical recovery phase following its recent bearish decline, with upcoming economic releases expected to determine whether the rebound can be sustained or if broader bearish pressure resumes.

Technical Market Overview
1. Current Position: USDCAD is currently trading around 1.4017, attempting to recover after rebounding from the 1.3990 support area. The pair has begun forming higher lows, indicating that short-term bullish momentum is gradually strengthening.
2. Resistance Zone: The nearest resistance is located at 1.4037, followed by the major resistance at 1.4080. A sustained move above these levels would strengthen the ongoing recovery and improve the short-term bullish outlook.
3. Support Zone: Immediate support is found at 1.3990, which marks the recent swing low and remains the key level supporting the current rebound. A break below this area could expose the pair to renewed selling pressure.
4. Indicator Observation: Bollinger Bands remain relatively stable, reflecting moderate volatility. The latest Parabolic SAR dots are positioned below the candles, confirming improving bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the MFI (14) has climbed to approximately 63.37, indicating stronger buying interest, while the Stochastic oscillator has recovered to around 62.58 and 38.81, signaling strengthening upside momentum following its rebound from oversold territory.
5. Technical Summary: USDCAD is showing signs of a short-term recovery after establishing support near 1.3990, with technical indicators favoring improving bullish momentum. However, the pair remains below the key 1.4037–1.4080 resistance zone, meaning a confirmed breakout is still required to validate a stronger bullish continuation.

Market Performance:
Forex              Last Price         % Change
EUR/USD        1.1520               −0.03%
GBP/USD        1.3449               −0.03%

Key Economic Calendar:
US: Fed Musalem Speech
JP: Household Spending MoM & YoY
CN: Balance of Trade
CN: Exports & Imports YoY
DE: Balance of Trade
DE: Exports YoY
DE: Industrial Production MoM
US: Average Hourly Earnings MoM & YoY
US: Nonfarm Payrolls
US: Participation Rate
US: Unemployment Rate
CA: Employment Change
CA: Full-Time & Part-Time Employment Change
CA: Participation Rate
CA: Unemployment Rate
US: Fed Barkin Speech
CA: Ivey PMI s.a