FPG USDCAD Market Report December 10, 2025

USDCAD on the H1 timeframe, price has experienced a noticeable drop from 1.3952 to 1.3799, indicating strong bearish pressure during the previous session. The current price is now showing a slight bounce but remains mostly sideways around 1.3846, reflecting a consolidation phase after the sharp decline. This structure suggests that the market is currently in a temporary balance between buyers attempting a recovery and sellers still controlling the broader short-term trend.

USDCAD is currently trading near the middle of the Bollinger Bands, signaling that volatility has started to normalize after the aggressive sell-off. Recent candles show overlapping structures, confirming sideways consolidation. Parabolic SAR has flipped below price, suggesting a short-term bullish corrective attempt. MFI (14) is currently around 54.13, indicating neutral money flow with no dominant accumulation or distribution. Meanwhile, MACD (12,26,9) remains below the zero line, but the histogram is contracting, confirming that bearish momentum is weakening, though a full bullish reversal has not yet been confirmed.

Although short-term volatility appears to be decreasing and the chart is moving relatively sideways, traders should still consider fundamental factors, as several economic events from both Canada and the US are scheduled to be released today. These releases could act as a catalyst for a breakout from the current consolidation, either resuming the bearish trend or triggering a bullish correction.

Market Observation & Strategy Advice
1. Current Position: USDCAD is currently trading around 1.3846, consolidating after rebounding from the low at 1.3799. Price action remains compressed, signaling market indecision following the prior bearish impulse.
2. Resistance Zone: Immediate resistance is located at 1.3861, aligning with the upper Bollinger Band and recent rejection structure. A sustained breakout above this zone could open upside recovery toward 1.3931 – 1.3952.
3. Support Zone: Nearest support stands near 1.3813, which has already acted as a short-term demand area. A deeper and more critical support is located at 1.3799, representing the base of the recent bearish extension.
4. Indicators: MFI remains in neutral territory, reflecting balanced capital flow. MACD is still negative but showing weakening bearish pressure as the histogram contracts. Parabolic SAR currently supports short-term bullish correction while price holds above the 1.3813 support zone.
5. Trading Strategy Suggestions:

• Sell on Rejection: Sell near 1.3865 if bearish rejection appears, targeting 1.3813 and 1.3799.

• Buy on Breakout: Buy only if price closes strongly above 1.3880, with upside targets toward 1.3915 – 1.3950.

• Risk Management: Avoid overexposure during high-impact US and Canada news releases due to potential volatility spikes.

Market Performance:
Forex          Last Price     % Change
EUR/USD     1.1625             −0.01%
USD/JPY     156.82            +0.01%

Today’s Key Economic Calendar:
US: API Crude Oil Stock Change
CN: Inflation Rate YoY
EU: ECB President Lagarde Speech
US: MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
US: Employment Cost – Benefits, Wages, & Index (QoQ)
CA: BoC Interest Rate Decision
US: EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change