FPG USDCAD Market Report September 10, 2026

On the H1 timeframe, USDCAD is showing early signs of recovery following a sharp bearish rally over the past several sessions. The decline unfolded from a high near 1.3871 down to a low around 1.3759, tracing out a clearly defined descending channel throughout the move. From that low, buyers stepped in and support began to firm up, triggering a bullish reversal that has since carried price back toward the 1.3820 resistance zone. The pair is currently trading near 1.3805, with volatility picking up as the recovery gains traction.

Confirming this reversal, the Bollinger Bands have started to widen again after contracting around the recent low, pointing to renewed volatility as the reversal develops. The Parabolic SAR has flipped below price action, reinforcing the move toward bullish momentum. Momentum indicators echo this tone: the MFI is holding near 67, reflecting healthy buying flow without yet signaling overextension, while the Stochastic is turning higher from the mid-range, leaving scope for further upside before overbought conditions come into play.

On the fundamental side, the Canadian dollar has faced headwinds over the past week from softer employment data and a sharply narrower trade surplus, while renewed US-Canada trade tensions have added a further layer of uncertainty. The Bank of Canada’s policy rate of 2.25% offers some underlying support for the loonie, but weaker domestic data and lingering trade risks remain meaningful counterweights. Taken together, these dynamics help explain why USDCAD is beginning to stabilize and strengthen after its recent bearish run, with trade-related concerns and softer Canadian fundamentals likely to keep supporting the pair’s recovery in the near term.

Technical Market Overview
1. Current Position: USDCAD is trading around 1.3805, having rebounded off a multi-day low near 1.3759. The pair is in the early stages of a bullish reversal following a sharp bearish rally that took price down from 1.3871.
2. Resistance Zone: The immediate resistance sits at 1.3820, marking the level where the recent bounce has stalled and previous consolidation occurred. A break and hold above this zone would open the way toward 1.3850–1.3871, the origin of the prior bearish move.
3. Support Zone: Key support is established at 1.3765, aligning with the base of the recent reversal and the lower boundary of the current consolidation. A secondary support level lies at 1.3759, the swing low from which the recovery began; a break below this area would invalidate the near-term bullish structure.
4. Indicator Observation: The Bollinger Bands are widening, signaling a pickup in volatility as the reversal develops. The Parabolic SAR has flipped below price, supporting the bullish bias. The MFI is holding near 67, reflecting solid buying flow without yet reaching overbought extremes, while the Stochastic is turning higher from mid-range levels, leaving room for additional upside before momentum becomes stretched.
5. Technical Summary: USDCAD is transitioning from a bearish channel into a corrective recovery phase, supported by improving momentum and rising volatility. As long as price holds above the 1.3765–1.3759 support zone, the bias favors further upside toward 1.3820, with a sustained break above that level targeting the 1.3850–1.3871 region. A move back below 1.3759, however, would shift the outlook back in favor of the sellers.

Market Performance:
Forex             Last Price       % Change
EUR/USD      1.1633              +0.01%
GBP/USD      1.3549              +0.02%

Key Economic Calendar:
EU: ECB President Lagarde Speech
US: API Crude Oil Stock Change
UK: RICS House Price Balance
EU: Deposit Facility Rate
EU: ECB Interest Rate Decision
US: Core PPI & PPI MoM
US: Initial Jobless Claims
EU: ECB Press Conference
US: Existing Home Sales & Existing Home Sales MoM
US: EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change