FPG USOUSD Market Report August 11, 2026

On the H1 timeframe, USOUSD remains firmly entrenched in a bullish trend and is now approaching last week’s high near 82.55, a key resistance level that could determine the next phase of price action. The market previously experienced a sharp sell-off, declining from approximately 82.55 to 74.39 before finding strong support and reversing higher. The subsequent recovery, which began around 74.77, has developed into a sustained uptrend characterized by higher highs and higher lows. Price is currently trading around 82.32, placing it just below the previous high and highlighting the potential for increased volatility as the market tests this critical resistance zone.

Technical indicators continue to reinforce the underlying bullish structure, although near-term momentum has begun to moderate. The Bollinger Bands are expanding, signaling rising volatility alongside the strengthening upward move, while the Parabolic SAR remains below the candles, maintaining a bullish trend signal. The MACD also remains supportive of the upside, with the MACD line at approximately 1.0724, above the signal line at 0.9777, indicating that positive momentum is still prevailing. Meanwhile, the Stochastic has eased to around 65.57, with the %K line below the %D line at approximately 76.26 after recently entering overbought territory. This suggests some cooling in short-term buying pressure, but with the oscillator still above the mid-range, the broader bullish bias remains intact.

From a fundamental perspective, crude oil continues to draw support from persistent geopolitical and supply-side uncertainties. Developments surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz remain a key source of risk, while sanctions and unresolved compensation demands continue to complicate negotiations with the United States. Although OPEC+ increased production in July, potential supply disruptions and restrictions on Iranian exports remain supportive factors for oil prices. Meanwhile, softer U.S. employment data has strengthened expectations for a more accommodative Federal Reserve stance, although elevated oil prices could add to inflationary pressures ahead of the latest CPI release. Against this backdrop, USOUSD maintains a bullish outlook as it approaches the 82.55 resistance level, with a sustained break above this area potentially opening the way for further upside, while failure to break could trigger a period of consolidation or short-term profit-taking.

Technical Market Overview
1. Current Position: USOUSD is trading around 82.32 on the H1 timeframe, maintaining a strong bullish structure after recovering from the 74.39–74.77 support area. Price continues to form higher highs and higher lows and is now testing the upper end of the recent trading range.
2. Resistance Zone: The primary resistance zone is around 82.32–82.55, with 82.55 representing the previous week’s high. A sustained H1 breakout and close above 82.55 would strengthen the bullish outlook and potentially signal further upside.
3. Support Zone: Initial support is located around 81.30–81.50, followed by the 79.75–80.00 area. The major structural support remains around 77.90, while the stronger swing-low support is positioned near 74.39–74.77.
4. Indicator Observation: The Bollinger Bands are widening, indicating increasing volatility and strengthening price expansion. The Parabolic SAR remains below price, maintaining a bullish signal. The MACD is positive, with the MACD line at approximately 1.0724, above the signal line at 0.9777. Meanwhile, the Stochastic at 65.57 has turned lower from overbought territory, suggesting some moderation in short-term momentum without yet invalidating the broader bullish trend.
5. Technical Summary: The overall H1 structure remains bullish, supported by positive MACD momentum, a bullish SAR configuration, and expanding Bollinger Bands. However, USOUSD is approaching the critical 82.55 resistance, while the Stochastic indicates that short-term momentum is beginning to cool. A decisive break above 82.55 would favor further upside, whereas rejection at this level could trigger a short-term consolidation or pullback toward the nearest support zones.

Market Performance:
Commodities        Last Price       % Change
UKOUSD                88.58                −0.06%

Key Economic Calendar:
US: Fed Hammack Speech
UK: BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY
AU: NAB Business Confidence
AU: RBA Interest Rate Decision
AU: RBA Press Conference
US: ADP Employment Change Weekly
US: Existing Home Sales & Existing Home Sales MoM