FPG XAUUSD Market Report July 23, 2025

XAUUSD continued its strong bullish advance on the daily timeframe, pushing above key resistance and entering a fresh supply zone. The metal is showing solid follow-through after a series of higher closes, confirming a transition from consolidation to breakout momentum. Price is now trading around 3429.85, indicating that buyers remain firmly in control as gold tests new short-term highs.

The recent bullish surge has propelled price far above the 50-day moving average, marking a clear trend reversal with strong upward bias. The last three daily candles show decisive bullish bodies, with minimal upper wicks, evidence of sustained demand and upward momentum. The breakout beyond the 3392.95 resistance zone invalidated prior overhead pressure and opened the path toward the upper supply band around 3436.70.

Stochastic Oscillator (5,3,3) is deep in overbought territory at 87.39 and 69.68, hinting at potential short-term exhaustion. However, this condition often accompanies strong trending markets. The Money Flow Index (14) reading of 57.04 suggests steady capital inflows, aligning with the broader bullish move. Despite technical overextension, volume and buying pressure remain intact, keeping the bullish scenario viable in the near term.

Bullish momentum is clearly present, but signs of slowing may emerge as price interacts with the overhead supply zone. A minor retracement could be expected due to the overbought Stochastic, but unless bears regain control below 3392.95, pullbacks are likely to be shallow and short-lived. Gold remains attractive for breakout traders, but caution is warranted near the 3436.70 level, where profit-taking could begin.

Market Observation & Strategy Advice:
1. Current position: XAUUSD is trading around 3429.85, having broken decisively into a fresh supply zone, confirming strong buyer dominance and short-term trend continuation.
2. Resistance: The key resistance lies at 3436.70, the upper edge of the new supply zone, where price may face increased selling interest and short-term profit-taking.
3. Support: Immediate support stands at 3392.95, which was a prior resistance level and now acts as a potential bullish retest zone in case of a pullback.
4. Stochastic Oscillator is overbought, indicating strong momentum but also raising the likelihood of a short-term correction as buyers lose marginal strength. MFI (14) at 57.04 reflects continued buying participation without signs of divergence, supporting further gains as long as flows remain consistent.
5. Trading Strategy Suggestions:

• Consider waiting for a minor pullback toward 3392.95–3400 for potential long entries with tighter risk.
• Watch for bearish candlestick confirmation near 3436.70 before initiating any short-term countertrend setups.
• Maintain bullish bias while price holds above 3392.95, using intraday setups to ride short-term momentum.

Market Performance:
Precious Metals  Last Price % Change
XPTUSD                         1,467.736      −0.16%
XAGUSD                        39.25050     −0.11%

Today’s Key Economic Calendar:
JP: BoJ Uchida Speech
US: MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
US: Existing Home Sales