24/01/2023

Today’s Announcements & News

AU: NAB December business conditions

January PMI services for Japan Nikkei, Eurozone, UK and US

January PMI manufacturing for Japan, UK and US

US Richmond Fed index January

 

Australia

Australian shares are set to open higher as tech stocks paced a broad rally in New York, though US equities had fallen from their session highs near 3pm.

ASX futures were up 4 points or 0.05 per cent to 7405 near 7amAEDT.

 

United States

It is showing that further erosion in earnings, with the gap between our model and the forward estimates as wide as it’s ever been. The last two times our model was this far below consensus, the S&P 500 fell by 34 per cent and 49 per cent. The earnings recession is imminent. We find the shift in investor tone supportive of our call for new lows in the S&P 500, which will bring this bear market to a close later this quarter or early in 2Q.

 

Commodities

Commodities have staged a remarkable rally from the weather-driven lows at the start of the year, coinciding with a fundamental shift in the global macro landscape. With the macro backdrop moving from headwind to tailwind and the micro fundamental environment putting almost all markets into deficit, alongside very low starting inventories, we believe the next quarters will see synchronized support. With macro and micro dynamics re-aligning again, investors are likely to take a fresh look at the commodity sector given the severe lack of long-term capex.