IMF Forecasts Stable yet Sluggish Global Economic Growth for 2024. The IMF forecasts that global economic growth will remain stable yet slow in 2024. In its latest projections, the IMF anticipates real global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth to reach 3.2% for both 2024 and 2025, unchanged from 2023. This growth projection has been revised upward by 0.1 percentage points from the previous estimates released in January 2024.
The IMF indicates that global economic growth will be influenced by various factors, including uncertainties in the U.S. economy, weak demand in China and Europe, and the impacts of conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated that the U.S. Treasury Department is considering imposing new sanctions on Iran, which could limit Iran’s ability to export oil. The IMF warns that the worst-case scenario, such as an escalation of conflicts in the Middle East, could lead to a 15% increase in oil prices and raise global inflation by about 0.7 percentage points.
The IMF projections suggest that global inflation is expected to decrease to 2.8% by the end of 2024 from 4% in the previous year, further dropping to 2.4% in 2025. The IMF also revised its projections for U.S. economic growth to 2.7% in 2024, up from the previous projection of 2.1%. On the other hand, growth projections for the eurozone have been revised downwards to 0.8% from 0.9% in January.
The IMF highlights the importance of China in global economic growth, warning about the slowdown in China’s growth and its implications for the global economy. The IMF recommends that China expedite the exit of financially unsound property developers and support vulnerable households to restore consumer demand.
Furthermore, the IMF raised its projections for Russia’s economic growth to 3.2% in 2024 from 2.6%. This increase is largely driven by strong oil export revenues and significant government spending. The IMF also raised its growth projection for Russia for the year 2025 to 1.8% from 1.1%. IMF Forecasts Stable yet Sluggish Global Economic Growth for 2024.
